T021 // Space Race 2.0 – Here We Go Again!

For two years, the audience has been nurtured regularly by the mild progress and constant delays in the plan to return to the Moon. But why on Earth did they stop the Moon conquest after the first success 56 years ago? Why did we let the door open to the new, serious, usual suspect and adversary? The answer lies in a dozen logical and illogical reasons.

First, it's typical of Americans: job done, won the competition, losing the attention and interest of the public always waiting for what's next. It's also typical of Europeans, who did not take the chance to relay with a totally reverse, conservative view. Why spend billions of euros on space when there is so much to do first on Earth? Fair enough, but they forgot that high-tech developments in space result in progress for the citizens. A very simple example is GPS. Who is capable of reading old-school maps today? Guess what? We had to wait over 50 years to see a nascent "Space Tech" ecosystem with a vibrant VC eager to finance this new generation.

All these attitudes were rather simplistic but enough to shut down any astronaut landings and lunar station build-up. Objectively, they moved the funds to operate scientific research on the ISS orbital station and ambitious probe projects in outer space, with impressive results coming from JWST. But on the Moon side, nothing really new and spectacular other than mapping our next-door neighbor in detail. Did it look too simple and not prestigious enough? Personally, I still wonder.

So now, why are we suddenly back to the Moon? The pragmatic reason is that scientists solidly confirm that ice in the Moon's south pole craters, in large quantities, could not only be transformed into simple water for lunar stations but, more seriously, into hydrogen for spacecraft propulsion. This implies that the Moon could be a general spaceport for "touch and go" to outer space missions.

The second reason is the reasonable certainty of finding Helium-3 in massive quantities that we need back on Earth, this time for nuclear fusion research, among other crucial applications. So, the Moon is going to be a mining spot and not so much a space tourism trip for billionaires. Fair enough!

But on the financial and technology side, we are not there yet at all! NASA, ESA, JAXA, ISRO, and the other space agencies are still reasoning with last-century proven technologies, with very methodical and extremely prudent iterations, all in the name of safety for the astronauts. But why slow down and quadruple-check any small move? Because we are still thinking about sending human astronauts and not robots or androids that will be vexing for our intellect, even if 80% cheaper. But this is another long debate we will argue later.

The only really new tech approach came up with the arrival on the scene of a South African-born: Elon. Despite the dozen defects and awkward behaviors he has, he has ONE quality: he is able to convince anyone to follow him on his wildest plans. NASA's "stiff upper lip" lost the plot of the reusable launcher, a mad idea that is now the major example of high risk and reward in space tech.

Imagine the NASA boys looking at this cartoonish "non-pure American" – with zero space record – attempting the impossible. They were caught completely off guard and ridiculed in comparison to their high-budget policy mantra, "let's launch and crash back our debris." The US government will continue to foot the bill anyway!

NASA was stubborn for a long moment, but they felt that they were going against the wind and that it was better to outsource launches to the young lad. A smart decision, just reading the latest statistics: 334 launches over 14 years (as of January 2024) and a 99.4% success rate on reusable rocket returns. Smart!

The nascent "Space Tech" sector and the newly revised public-private cooperation, which was a striking NASA strategy review, is an effective, solid reason for the new confidence to go back to the Moon. This loud message did not fall on deaf ears on the other side of the world. The Chinese space ecosystem observed, comprehended, and... copied!

The third real and serious reason for suddenly returning to the Moon has now become very clear and geopolitical: to prevent China from planting their flag there before NASA and "Artemis Accords" friends return!

The Moon has become the ultimate prize in a high-stakes geopolitical game. It's not just about science; it's about planting a flag where it counts.

It is a race about national pride on a universal scale.