T018 // Everyone Needs Space Weather Forecast

Space weather can be described as the mood swings of the Sun. The Sun constantly emits streams of tiny, charged particles that form the solar wind. When it becomes particularly active, the Sun produces powerful flares that send even more energy and particles into space. These solar winds and flares reach our planet and interact with its magnetic field, causing auroras to appear in the sky. But besides creating marvelous visual effects, solar storms can harm space and ground-based infrastructure. These storms can disrupt satellites, cause blackouts and radio communication failures, as well as increase radiation levels, which can be dangerous for astronauts and high-altitude air travel.

As technology advances, we become increasingly dependent on satellites, as they play a crucial role in all aspects of our daily lives, from internet and cellular connection to navigation and weather forecasts. If space weather disrupts their operation, it will lead to all sorts of failures in essential daily services. For instance, we may temporarily lose access to bank accounts and online services required for remote work. On top of that, emergency and security systems could also be compromised, since their rapid response relies on satellite communications and navigation systems. If a powerful geomagnetic storm happens today, it could cost the global economy €38.4 billion in a single day.

At the moment, there are approximately 8 thousand active satellites in Earth’s orbit, and this number is expected to grow to 25 thousand by 2031. As the number of satellites increases, so does their vulnerability to space weather, because operators are unable to manually control this many satellites and quickly react to solar activity. Therefore, it is necessary to develop automated systems that can send warnings and adjust satellite orbits to minimize the risk. Over the past 5 years, the world has lost around $950 million worth of satellites due to solar storms and other space phenomena. Such losses are likely to increase in the future, which makes protection from space weather an essential issue for the entire world.

Solar activity goes through cycles that last about 11 years, during which it can increase or decrease. We are currently in the middle of Solar Cycle 25 which will reach its peak in 2024-2025. During this period, the number of solar flares and storms will see a dramatic increase, meaning that the risk of failures in critical Earth infrastructure will increase as well. However, powerful storms can even happen during the period of solar minimum, which makes it all the more important to take several measures to ensure global technological safety:

Reinforcing space weather monitoring. Solar activity monitoring requires a reliable network of satellites distributed throughout the orbit to maintain continuous and comprehensive observation. Companies such as Mission Space are working on developing compact satellites to expand the observation network and help gather and organize systematic data for accurate space weather forecasts.

Creating a universal data lake. A centralized repository of data on space weather will compile information about solar activity from various sources around the world: satellites, observatories, space agencies, research centers, and more. This integration will allow us to eliminate data fragmentation, increase the accuracy of forecasts, and provide a holistic view of the most important aspects of space weather.

Using machine learning. Machine learning algorithms can automatically analyze large amounts of data, identify patterns, and predict potential space weather events. This technology can greatly improve the speed and efficiency of data analysis.

Promoting international cooperation. Unlike Earth weather, space weather affects the planet as a whole. To monitor and predict space events efficiently, it is essential to use data from the entire world, which is only possible with international cooperation. The exchange of information and resources enhances the accuracy and speed of forecasting, making it possible to prepare for space weather challenges in advance.